Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems

The Petersburg Politics Foundation analyzes the regions in which the most difficult election campaigns are to be expected.
Elections 2018: from whom to wait for problems elections, regions, maybe authorities, there will be elections, also, regions, elections, complexity, governors, governor, Amur, campaign, candidates, regions, will pass, plan, fund, practically

The May early replacement of a group of governors led to a noticeable increase in the number of direct elections of regional leaders on September voting day - from 18 to 22, the report's authors note. From the moment of the return of the gubernatorial elections, the current campaign will be the second in terms of the number of elections held by the heads of regions, as well as a record number of replacements for heads of the subjects of the federation - at least 16 people (another question is being discussed on the fourth). The last time such a situation was observed in 2014, when at the same time governors were elected in 30 regions, and replacements occurred in 10 regions of the federation.
Elections will be held ahead of schedule in 15 regions: only in May the president replaced the heads of the Amur, Magadan, Tyumen regions, the Altai Territory, the Republic of Sakha and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District.
Analysts of Petersburg Politics believe that the autumn elections will be held against the background of different moods.On the one hand, there are great expectations that the second powerful pro-government mobilization for the elections for the elections can be a daunting task. In addition to the obvious effect of voter fatigue and a lower level of participation of the administrative resource, it can be assumed that voting will take place in the context of reduced public expectations from the current government.
At the same time, there are no signals that gubernatorial elections will be considered as a way of sensing public opinion and releasing a social couple.
"The most problematic direction is the principle of competitiveness: the current heads of regions are increasingly making it clear that they will not force pro-government deputies to hold strong oppositional competitors through a municipal filter. This eases the technical task of conducting existing victories in the eyes of the population and elites, "the report says.
All regions in which elections will be held, analysts divided into three categories: "light", "moderate" and "potentially problematic" for candidates from the government.
The first group includes seven regions of the federation: Vladimir, Voronezh, Samara, Tyumen regions, Khabarovsk and Krasnoyarsk regions, as well as Chukotka. It is noted that the level of controllability is historically high in these regions, the motivation for the work of individual candidates is high, and there are no internal contradictions.
Political campaigns of "moderate severity" are predicted in Amur, Ivanovo, Magadan, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Omsk, Oryol regions, Primorsky Krai and Moscow.
In the Oryol region, experts explain, the nomination of strong candidates against the interim governor of communist Andrei Klychkov is limited thanks to the “coalition of the EP and the CPRF”. The ruling party refused to nominate its candidate for the elections, but the competitor of the interim head of the region Andrei Klychkov could be a businessman and deputy of the regional council Vitaly Rybakov.
The orientation of the Moscow campaign to repeat the scenario of the presidential election "reduces the likelihood of access to the elections by strong opponents," the report says. In the Amur region, the appointment of the Annunciation, not the "Varyag" Vasily Orlov to the post of head of the region, "reduced the risks of protest mobilization," analysts say.
State Duma Vice Speaker Igor Lebedev told Kommersant that the LDPR party he represents is counting on elections in the Amur Region, noting that they have a strong candidate there. “So far, the polls give him the first place, and the acting governor was appointed a week ago and has not had time to feel the spirit of the region,” he said. At the same time, Lebedev believes that it is almost impossible to win the elections for the current governors, so the LDPR will focus mainly on elections to regional parliaments.
The most problematic analysts of the fund attributed Altai Krai, Kemerovo, Moscow, Novosibirsk regions, Khakassia and Yakutia. In particular, in the Kemerovo region, the complexity can create a surge of social and political activity, as well as a large number of those who have not decided in the historically regulated region.
In addition, the growth of protest activity in the suburbs may complicate the campaign and Andrei Vorobyov. And in Yakutia, where the Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin at the March elections showed the best result in the country (27.25%), the configuration of the elites, which was not built after the appointment of Acting Governor Aisen Nikolayev, could have an impact on future elections.
Political analysts predict that the rise in anxiety among Russians may also arise from social and economic issues that have not previously received a powerful political sound: raising the retirement age, recycling, ecology, rising gasoline prices, and domestic discomforts during the World Cup.
Recall that the election of governors will be held this year on September 9.
Political analyst Kirill Nikolenko shares his opinion on the study: "I believe that the municipal filter and the possibility of pressure on politicians who can really compete with the Kremlin’s appointees are factors that make virtually any elections easy for the authorities. Difficulties may arise where there is the struggle of groups at both the regional and federal levels, that is, this is not a conditional opposition will interfere, but internal contradictions in United Russia. In this connection, I believe that o separation of regions in terms of the complexity of the elections for the authorities is approximate and preliminary. "
Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of General History and International Relations of the Altai State University, Yuri Chernyshovthat the regions had to be assessed according to another criterion: “The material of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, in my opinion, quite adequately reflects the real situation, however there is one fundamental“ but. ”Why, actually, political scientists estimate regional election campaigns in terms of they will be “easy for the authorities"? Why not evaluate the elections as they should be, that is, how much will they contribute to the real will of the citizens?
However, the answer to this is contained in the judgments of some experts that for alternative candidates "to win the gubernatorial elections is almost impossible." Thus, it turns out that the results are considered to be already predetermined, and only the degree of "ease for power" to achieve these results will be different. It is unlikely that such installations will contribute to the return to the popular elections of their proper meaning. "
Dmitry Nechaev (Voronezh), doctor of political sciences, head of the autonomous non-profit organization Institute for Political Analysis and Strategies, disagrees with the assessment that the Voronezh Region received: “In my opinion, colleagues from the Petersburg Politics Foundation are not completely right.The gradation of regions according to the degree of difficulty of the election campaign does not accurately reflect the picture. <...>
Our region does not belong to a group where elections will be easy. I think that he belongs to a group in which regions of medium degree of difficulty are noted. And that's why.
Firstly, Alexander Gusev is not a widely promoted public politician who, literally in the framework of the cavalry attack, will overcome public opinion and as a result will gain the support of voters in the September elections.
Secondly, despite the availability of administrative resources and control over the municipal rural areas of the region, the city of Voronezh remains, in which even the presidential election turnout was not easy. <...>
Thirdly, in the region now there are difficult social and economic development trends, it is clear that it’s not Gusev that is the cause of these problems, they switched to it by inertia, but there will be demand from it.
And finally: Gusev has no team. That team, which he inherited from Gordeev, is unbalanced. <...> In a word, the administrative environment of Gusev is quite problematic both in terms of the intellectual component, and in terms of organization, and in terms of developing a strategy.<...> This will inevitably affect the election of the governor. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

Related news

Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems image, picture Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems Elections 2018: from whom to expect problems